Chiefs vs. Lions: Week 6 Touchdown Prop Picks and Super Bowl Preview

When Patrick Mahomes, quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs lines up against the Detroit Lions for Sunday Night Football, bettors immediately start scanning the touchdown prop board.

Here's the thing: the game kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on October 12, 2025, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri, and oddsmakers have set the over/under at a lofty 52.5 points. The Chiefs enter as 2.5‑point favorites despite a 2‑3 start, while the Lions carry a four‑game winning streak and lead the league in points per game (31.2).

Game Overview and Stakes

During Week 6 Sunday Night FootballArrowhead Stadium, both clubs are essentially auditioning for a 2026 Super Bowl slot. Last season the Chiefs fell short in the big game, while the Lions reached the conference championship. The kicker? The over/under is the highest of any Week 6 matchup, promising a fireworks display for prop markets.

Touchdown Prop Favorites for the Lions

For Detroit, the standout is Amon‑Ra St. Brown, wide receiver. DraftKings lists him at +1000 for the first touchdown, a four‑star rating, while bet365 offers +145 for an anytime score. "St. Brown has become the go‑to red‑zone target for Jared Goff," says Mike Johnson, senior NFL analyst at SportsLine. His 8.2 catches per game this season make the odds look like a bargain.

Running back David Montgomery, running back is another reliable pick. DraftKings posts him at -110 for an anytime touchdown, reflecting his goal‑line usage (he’s scored 6 rushing TDs in the first five games). His back‑up, Jahmyr Gibbs, carries a +56 anytime line, a value play after a scoreless week.

If you’re chasing a longshot, consider Isaac TeSlaa, wide receiver. FanDuel lists him at +6000 for the first touchdown – a two‑star rating but huge upside for a sprinkle bet.

Touchdown Prop Favorites for the Chiefs

On Kansas City’s side, the obvious is Travis Kelce, tight end. He sits at +135 on DraftKings for an anytime score and +1100 for the first TD at BetMGM, earning a three‑star rating. Kelce’s 68 receptions last season prove he’s Mahomes’ most trusted red‑zone weapon.

Another hot name is Xavier Worthy, wide receiver. After returning from a shoulder injury in Week 4, DraftKings offers him +145 for an anytime touchdown. Worthy’s 15.3 yards per reception this season make him a deep‑ball threat that can flip the scoring balance.

For a sneaky value play, keep an eye on Tyquan Thornton, wide receiver. SportsLine’s model values him at +300 on FanDuel, backed by three TDs in his last four outings.

Even Patrick Mahomes appears in prop circles. DraftKings lists his anytime touchdown line at +290, reflecting his occasional scramble into the end zone. The over on his rushing yards prop (26.5) also hints at scoring chances.

Backfield options include Kareem Hunt, running back at +160 for an anytime TD. He’s been used in short‑yard situations, especially near the goal line.

Betting Strategies and Bankroll Management

Betting columnists stress a disciplined approach: allocate 1 unit to standard picks (St. Brown, Kelce, Montgomery) and 0.2 unit to longshots (TeSlaa, Worthy, Thornton). One analyst tracking NFL touchdown props this season is 26‑49 straight up but up +22.04 units, proving that a sub‑.500 win rate can still be profitable with proper sizing. Last year the same writer posted a 31.4% win rate but earned +44.1 units, an 11% ROI.

Field‑goal combos are also in play. Kicker Harrison Butker is featured in “two‑or‑more” bets, a hedge against the high over/under where both teams could stall before reaching the end zone.

Implications for the Season and Super Bowl Outlook

Win or lose, the outcome will shape the narrative heading into the second half of the season. A Chiefs victory keeps them in the NFC race and fuels preseason Super Bowl futures that still favor Kansas City. A Lions win, meanwhile, cements Detroit’s status as the league’s most potent offense and could push them into an early playoff berth.

Either way, the market’s appetite for touchdown props will stay hot, especially as fantasy owners scramble for weekly points and sportsbooks adjust lines based on actual scoring trends.

• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET, Oct 12, 2025
• Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
• Over/Under: 52.5 points (highest Week 6 total)
• Chiefs favorite: -2.5 points
• Top Lions prop: Amon‑Ra St. Brown +1000 (first TD)